User blog:Kitahara/Recording drum expedition success rates
Introduction Due to an incident, it was made clear that the information on the wiki regarding drum expeditions no longer accurately described the actual mechanics behind it. As a result, I started logging the results under various conditions (and a few other kind souls have since joined in) to see if we can get a better understanding of how great success on drum expeditions works. Partners in this test: *Zel-Melon *Homuhomu123 *Flonnaru (Stats currently private) Summary A summary based on (mostly) my own data, for those who don't really want to read the data recorded so far (keep in mind things may change as more data is recorded, and other testers may have different results): *Sparkles add approximately a 15~16% chance to great success for each sparkled ship *Levels may affect the base chance for great success by a small degree (4~6%). **Assuming it is true, it is currently not known if both flagship level and total fleet level account for this, or if it is just one of the two factors *With 0 sparkles, minimum required drums equipped, and a high level flagship/total fleet level, the rate for GS is approximately 10% **Adding additional drums can increase this chance to approximately 40%. Thus if achieving 100% GS is your only concern, then 4 sparkles with a high level flagship/total fleet level and several more drums equipped than required should result in a 100% GS rate Significance of Levels= Partially through the recordkeeping, concerns about the impact of flagship/total level became more apparent. This section will compare the data between a fleet running Expedition 21 with the following criteria: Low level fleet *Level 15~20 Flagship *Total fleet level 30~40 *3 drums *No sparkles High level fleet *Level 50+ Flagship *Total fleet level 280+ *3 drums *No sparkles Current data (along with the data of partners) suggests levels have an impact on GS rates. |-| Minimum Drums= This section contains the data for rates with ships under the following conditions: *Minimum required drums equipped *Significantly higher level flagship/fleet total level than required Base Rate (0 Sparkles) 2 Sparkles 3 Sparkles |-| Maximum Drums= This section contains the data for rates with ships under the following conditions: *15 drums equipped for exp 21, 18 drums eqipped for 37/38 *Significantly higher level flagship/total fleet level than required Base Rate (0 Sparkles) Note: I believe my data for exp 21 is a bit abnormal (bad RNG I guess), and the true rate should be somewhat higher. 3 Sparkles Flonnaru's data for expeditions 21 and 37 with 3 sparkles and 14 drums return a similar rate of 86.2% with 200~ runs done. Thus, I am fairly confident in saying 86% is the rate for 3 sparkled ships with 'maximum' drums (and considering the same rate was achieved with less drums, the 'maximum' drum cap is probably even lower than expected. Recordkeeping (Minimum Drums) Due to the lengthy nature of this, I am not continuing with the weekly recordkeeping (never mind the fact that I haven't updated this section in months anyway kek). I am just keeping this section for archival purposes. Category:Blog posts